“Wars … provide a unique window into the vulnerabilities of an industry, and consequently the country that operates it.” — Dennis Voznesenski
A concise history: grain markets from the Dardanelles to today
Dennis Voznesenski’s 2024 study traces the long relationship between conflict and grain markets beginning in World War I, with a particular focus on Australia. He documents how maritime obstructions have repeatedly placed grain supplies at risk — from the Ottoman blockage of the Dardanelles during WWI to a contemporary “maritime freeze” around the Strait of Hormuz. Those episodes, Voznesenski argues, show that agricultural supply chains remain acutely vulnerable to naval and shipping disruption even more than a century later.
Maritime chokepoints, Australian strategy, and the ANZAC connection
The book links historical events to modern strategic stress. Voznesenski recounts that the Ottoman obstruction of Russia’s grain trade in WWI was the trigger for the Gallipoli landings and the birth of the ANZAC legend, and uses that example to underline how a nation’s grain routes can shape military choices. He writes that many of Australia’s past and current military engagements have been in the sea domain, often aimed at freeing or derisking shipping routes, and highlights Australia’s near-total reliance on maritime — and, to a lesser extent, airborne — supply chains.
Government intervention in wartime food security
Across eras, Voznesenski finds one constant: governments step in. He catalogues wartime measures that include export bans, production mandates, diverting conscripts from military service to rural work, providing food relief to post‑conflict and displaced populations, and coordinating food movements among allies. Although the forms of intervention have evolved since WWI, the book argues their role in shoring up grain supplies — or unintentionally harming markets — remains unchanged. The post‑Covid‑19 era, Voznesenski notes, has seen increased intervention as governments seek greater self‑sufficiency in a more precarious world.
Russia’s war in Ukraine, fertiliser markets, and present‑day shocks
A substantial portion of War and Wheat is dedicated to examining the effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine on global wheat and fertiliser markets. Voznesenski presents that analysis as directly relevant to current challenges, saying the book remains a useful resource “as we face the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.” He draws explicit connections between conflict, constrained freight, and price pressures that transmit through both grain and input markets such as fertilisers.
Biofuels, fuel price shocks, and domestic production
Voznesenski argues for expanding Australia’s biofuels sector as a way to strengthen resilience in the grains industry. He frames that argument in the immediate context of rising attention to domestic fuel production after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised the price of imported liquid fuels. By linking fuel security to agricultural resilience, the author suggests domestic biofuel capacity could reduce exposure to maritime disruptions that simultaneously threaten energy and food supply chains.
What this means for policymakers, agricultural leaders, and the public
- Policymakers: Voznesenski makes the choice clear — governments must decide how to keep food prices within reach without triggering counterproductive interventions. The book warns that getting this balance wrong can produce domestic political dissatisfaction and “dramatic political shifts at the ballot box,” or, in weaker institutions, “hunger‑conflict spirals” and inflationary crises.
- Agricultural leaders and producers: The author’s central warning — “The vulnerabilities the industry had leading into both world wars are the exact same ones that exist now” — signals an urgent need to assess supply‑chain exposures, consider biofuels and fuel strategies, and plan for freight disruptions tied to maritime chokepoints.
- The public and consumers: Voznesenski’s analysis underscores that obstructions to shipping can harm stability and exacerbate food insecurity, with direct implications for household food prices and availability during conflict or intersecting crises such as droughts or disease outbreaks.
Voznesenski’s concluding admonition for Australia is blunt: “For the Australian grains industry, the key takeaway of this book is simple. The vulnerabilities the industry had leading into both world wars are the exact same ones that exist now. The industry is woefully unprepared for future conflict.” That line anchors the book’s practical thrust: long memories of maritime blockages, modern fertiliser and freight shocks, and the renewed spotlight on domestic fuels combine to make choices about intervention, resilience investment, and strategic logistics both urgent and consequential.
Read the original review: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/bookshelf-on-war-and-wheat/
