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Geopolitics & DefenseNational Security

US, Israel Escalate Pressure on Iran with Airstrikes, Sanctions

Formal government setting with podium, soft daylight, conveying tense diplomatic atmosphere.

"I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow," President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday.

President Trump’s announcement on Truth Social

In the post, Trump said he had instructed "Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military" to refrain from the attack scheduled for the next day, while remaining ready to launch "a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice" if negotiations fail. He also asserted that the proposed deal would include "NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!"

The claim followed reporting by Axios that Iran had submitted an updated proposal but that the White House regarded it as "not a meaningful improvement" and "insufficient for a deal," citing a senior U.S. official and a source briefed on the situation. Axios also reported that Trump is expected to convene his top national security team in the Situation Room to discuss military options.

Axios reporter Barak Ravid noted — and the article reiterated — that Trump has previously extended deadlines and postponed planned attacks on Iran "at least half a dozen times since the war began," raising questions about whether this latest pause will hold.

Iran’s official stance: Esmaeil Baghaei and mediation through Pakistan

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters that "nuclear enrichment is a right that ‘already exists,'" signaling Tehran's continued resistance to demands to relinquish enriched uranium. Baghaei also said negotiations with the United States were continuing through Pakistani mediation.

Baghaei separately warned that "in case of aggression against Iran again, Iran’s armed forces have new #surprises for the enemy," a comment relayed via the Iranian IRIB media outlet after renewed threats from the United States.

Satellite imagery: damage to Iranian naval vessels

Updated satellite imagery released this week shows damage to multiple Iranian ships attributed to U.S.-Israeli strikes. Imagery dated May 17 from Shahid Bahonar Port appears to show the IRIS Makran with a roughly 30 m × 30 m hole in the deck and other heavy damage, according to imagery shared by GEOIMINT analyst Aryan. Separate imagery and analysis indicate the IRIS SHAHID MAHDAVI was sunk after strikes earlier in March, and the IRIS Kordestan showed light to moderate damage in imagery dated May 12.

Those assessments were shared publicly on social platforms by imagery analysts cited in the reporting and were described as damage "due to U.S.-Israeli strikes."

Strait of Hormuz: Persian Gulf Strait Authority, "Hormuz Safe," and shipping

Iran’s newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) announced it will provide "real-time updates" on operations in the Strait and declared itself "the legal entity and representative authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran for managing the passage and transit through the Strait of Hormuz." The PGSA's statement on X said navigation within the introduced boundaries of the Strait would be "contingent upon full coordination" with Iranian authorities and that "passage without permission will be considered illegal."

Bloomberg cited Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reporting that Iran has started a Bitcoin-backed insurance service for ships transiting the Strait, dubbed "Hormuz Safe," which the Iranian government claims "could generate more than $10 billion in revenue." The Institute for the Study of War characterized the effort as an attempt to formalize what it called a toll under the guise of maritime insurance; a White House official told the reporting that "the Strait is international water, and we are not going to let Iran toll the Strait."

On oil movements, Bloomberg commodities columnist Javier Blas reported Iran is loading a tanker at Jask — an alternative terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz but inside the U.S. Navy blockade line — and TankerTrackers.com said there are "plenty of able, cargo-empty tankers within the US Navy blockade perimeter" while Iran has lowered production and kept some storage on land.

Regional military movements: Pakistan, UAE and Saudi attacks, and Israeli facilities

Reuters and other outlets reported Pakistan has deployed thousands of troops, jets and air-defense systems to Saudi Arabia as part of a mutual aid pact. The deployment reportedly includes a squadron of around 16 JF-17 fighters, two squadrons of drones, and potentially a Chinese-made HQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missile system; the equipment is operated by Pakistani personnel and financed by Saudi Arabia, Reuters said.

On May 17, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia reported drone attacks. UAE officials said an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant was struck by one of three drones; the IAEA expressed "grave concern" and said it had been informed radiation levels remained normal and no injuries were reported. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry "strongly condemned" the drone attack on the Barakah plant, calling any deliberate targeting of nuclear facilities a grave violation of international law. Saudi Arabia said three drones were intercepted after entering from Iraqi airspace and the Ministry of Defense said it "reserves the right to respond at the appropriate time and place."

The New York Times reported Israel had established at least a second base in Iraq to aid air campaigns against Iran; Iraqi officials later confirmed the existence of a second base, the Times reported.

What this means for the United States' national security team, Gulf shipping companies, and Iran

  • United States' national security team: The White House has indicated continuing pressure — Axios reported a Situation Room meeting is expected to weigh military options. The military was ordered to be ready to execute a "full, large scale assault" on short notice per the president's post.
  • Gulf shipping companies and operators at the Strait of Hormuz: They will have to track PGSA announcements, the rollout of "Hormuz Safe" insurance, and shifting U.S. naval blockades and tanker movements, all of which affect insurance and transit decisions amid IAEA warnings about military activity near nuclear sites.
  • Iran: Tehran maintains a firm stance on enrichment as a right while simultaneously rolling out institutional and commercial measures to cement control over the Strait and preserve oil exports — from the PGSA to alternative loading at Jask.

The public facts presented here show a diplomacy under heavy duress: a presidential pause tied to Gulf interlocutors, competing claims about Iranian concessions, fresh imagery of naval damage, and new Iranian measures to control and monetize transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Whether Monday’s announcement is a genuine opening for a negotiated settlement or another postponement — as reporters have noted Trump has done repeatedly — depends in part on the next Situation Room meeting and whether Tehran alters the position expressed by its spokesman that enrichment "already exists."

Original story