"confident enough to speak and walk softly while carrying a big stick," U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told the Shangri‑La Dialogue — a phrasing that, in Singapore from May 29–31, underscored what he chose to say and what he chose not to say.
Shangri‑La Dialogue in Singapore
Defense chiefs from across the Indo‑Pacific — home to most of the world’s ten largest militaries — met in Singapore for the annual gathering. Hegseth’s address was his second since taking office, and observers noted one conspicuous omission: the speech did not directly address Taiwan. That absence stood out because the meeting followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s May summit in Beijing with President Xi Jinping, a moment when many in the region expected Washington to clarify its posture toward Taipei.
Pentagon warning, Chinese drills, and intensifying pressure
Last December, the Pentagon warned that “China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027.” The warning was followed days later by Chinese military drills conducted “all around the main island” to simulate an invasion, and a government spokesperson called the exercises “severe punishment” for Taiwan. The article frames those moves as part of an intensifying pressure campaign by Beijing against Taipei.
Taiwan’s defense trajectory: spending, reform, and aims
Taipei has increased investment in defense and resilience: over the past decade, the source reports, Taiwan doubled its defense spending, reformed its military, and invested in overall resilience. The legislature last month advanced $25 billion in additional military spending — a compromise that fell short of President Lai Ching‑te’s initial $40 billion proposal. Lai seeks to raise defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2030. The source notes that even substantial increases in Taiwan’s defense ambitions would still leave the island reliant on continued cooperation with the United States, given the comparative scale of China’s military.
U.S. policy signals: $11 billion sale, stalled $14 billion package, and budget requests
The Trump administration, the source says, has sent mixed signals about the depth of its support for Taiwan. On the one hand, the Executive Branch announced an $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan last December, and the White House’s April budget request sought billions for tools created under the previous administration to help equip Taiwan’s military and civilian agencies.
On the other hand, the source reports the administration reportedly stalled a separate $14 billion arms sale to Taipei prior to the president’s trip to China, and media accounts last year said the administration canceled a different arms transfer conducted under Presidential Drawdown Authority. After the president met Xi, he described the weapons package as a “very good bargaining chip,” a remark the article characterizes as bewildering to observers in Taipei.
Further complicating matters, the U.S. Navy’s top official said last month the sale was on “pause” so the U.S. military could ensure it had enough materiel for operations in Iran. Hegseth sought to downplay those concerns in Singapore but did not commit to advancing the paused package.
What this means for Taipei, Washington, and regional militaries
- Taipei: The island will likely continue to press ahead with its defense reforms and increased spending — the legislature advanced $25 billion and President Lai continues to aim for 5 percent of GDP by 2030 — but the article stresses Taipei still needs U.S. cooperation to deter an invasion.
- Washington (Executive Branch and Congress): The source highlights a split impression: Congress and past administrations, the article says, have broadly supported the Taiwan Relations Act as a bipartisan commitment to Taipei’s self‑defense; but the Executive Branch’s recent pauses and reported stalls on arms transfers have created concern about whether Washington will use the tools Congress has created and funded.
- Regional militaries and leaders: The gathering in Singapore was an opportunity, the piece argues, for the U.S. to speak plainly about China’s coercion and to reassure partners that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait remain central U.S. interests; Hegseth’s silence on Taiwan left that audience without the unequivocal message the author says they needed to hear.
The article’s prescription is direct: Hegseth could have reiterated U.S. commitment, publicly praised Taiwan’s defense steps, and committed to using “every tool” to strengthen Taipei’s self‑defense — including advancing the long‑awaited arms sale even if it meant jeopardizing visits to Beijing. “Some principles are worth missing flights for,” the source writes. The piece closes by urging immediate release of the arms package and fuller use of security assistance tools that Congress has funded.
When Hegseth “took the stage, the secretary should have talked tough,” the source concludes. Looking forward, the Trump administration “can still follow through. Indeed, it must.”
