“As adversarial missile capabilities become increasingly sophisticated, the need for agile, survivable, and highly precise forward-based sensors has never been greater,” the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) wrote in a pre-solicitation notice this week.
MDA’s requirements for the Forward-Based Mode (FBM) Radar Next
MDA has issued a call for “innovative prototype concepts” for what it calls the FBM Radar Next, signaling a shift from largely static or semi-mobile sensors to systems optimized for rapid movement, concealment, and survivability. The agency said the system must be transportable by C-17 military airlift and tactical ground vehicles, operational within specified hours of arrival, and capable of teardown “within minutes to maximize survivability.” Prototypes are currently in a pre-solicitation phase with plans to pursue development through an Other Transaction Authority (OTA) agreement — a contracting route MDA described as supporting rapid prototyping outside traditional acquisition timelines.
Why the AN/TPY-2 is now judged at risk
The AN/TPY-2 — best known for its role in the THAAD system but also used as a stand-alone forward-based sensor — remains the reference point for these requirements. The U.S. military is publicly known to have two AN/TPY-2s deployed in FBM mode in Japan and three more at sites in Israel, Qatar, and Turkey, with additional units forward-deployed as part of THAAD. While AN/TPY-2s are trailer-mounted and road mobile, MDA notes they are “not designed to be very rapidly relocated.”
Practical vulnerabilities have driven urgency. Iran’s strikes earlier this year reportedly destroyed at least one AN/TPY-2 and damaged other U.S. and allied radar sites in the Middle East, a development MDA described as a wake-up call. TWZ’s reporting and earlier analyses cited visible damage at sites such as Armavir Radar Station in 2024 as precedent for how radar losses can affect strategic warning and verification.
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End the scrambleThreats shaping the specification: missiles, one-way attack drones, and space-enabled targeting
MDA’s notice stresses detection and discrimination in “high-clutter and contested electromagnetic environments,” and calls for engineered physical, thermal, and electromagnetic signatures to improve survivability. The agency also seeks remote operations, automated system health monitoring, and a minimized onsite operator footprint.
U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Richard Zellmann, Deputy Commander of U.S. Space Command, reinforced the layered threat picture at the Space & Missile Defense Symposium. “We’ve seen our adversary employ a number of one-way attack systems that are coupled with these ballistic missile volleys,” he said, adding that commercialization of space and commercial ISR have made the battlefield more transparent. Zellmann warned “space isn’t a sanctuary,” noting that commercial ISR combined with GPS or other PNT and over-the-horizon communications can create a “pretty lethal asymmetric weapon system.”
Distributed arrays, smaller radars, and production pressures
MDA wants designs that can operate either as a “highly integrated single aperture or as multiple distributed arrays” to optimize coverage, sensitivity, survivability, or electronic protection. The notice points to potential advantages of many smaller, lower-signature nodes: easier concealment, faster relocation, resilience if nodes are lost, and unit-cost benefits.
Economics are explicit in the requirements. Prime contractor Raytheon is understood to have produced 16 AN/TPY-2s total to date. Unit costs for those radars are “generally pegged at around $250 to $300 million,” and they are “long-lead-time items that take years to deliver.” MDA therefore emphasizes design-for-manufacturing-and-assembly (DFMA) and cost-efficiency, asking that prototypes demonstrate a viable pathway to “rapid, high-volume production at an affordable unit cost” so units can be replaced quickly in active forward-deployed environments.
What this means for technologists, acquisition leaders, and military planners
- Technologists: Expect pressure to deliver lower-signature, modular radars that support distributed operations, remote control, and automated health monitoring while meeting discrimination requirements in contested electromagnetic environments.
- Acquisition leaders: OTA-based prototyping and the FY2027 budget request for two next-generation prototypes point to a rapid development path; procurement will need to weigh DFMA and unit-cost targets against performance and integration with existing C2BMC networks.
- Military planners: Transportability (C-17 compatibility), rapid setup/teardown measured in hours and minutes, and seamless integration with Command and Control, Battle Management, and Communications (C2BMC) systems are explicit operational constraints that will shape deployment concepts and logistics.
What the FBM Radar Next will ultimately look like remains undecided. MDA’s pre-solicitation notice and the FY2027 prototype funding request make clear the agency intends to trade the long, heavy, and costly model embodied by today’s AN/TPY-2s for something faster, harder to find, and cheaper to scale — a response driven by confirmed strikes on static radars and the emergence of integrated missile-plus-drone threat tactics. The immediate next steps are prototypes under OTA and evaluation against the mobility, survivability, and production criteria the agency has placed on the program.
