“There’s zero chance of appropriations getting passed because that requires 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans do not have 60 votes in the Senate for any kind of appropriations bill,” said Todd Harrison, a defense analyst with the American Enterprise Institute.
Todd Harrison on the Senate math and the lame duck clock
With only five legislative weeks remaining in the year, Republicans face a compressed calendar to lodge any meaningful defense legislation before control of both chambers shifts in January, experts quoted in the reporting warn. Harrison framed the central arithmetic: regular appropriations need 60 votes in the Senate, and “Democrats have zero incentive to reach any kind of a deal on appropriations because now they’ve taken both chambers by substantial majorities.”
The calendar pressure is concrete: the current continuing resolution expires on Dec. 11. Capital Alpha Partners analyst Byron Callan cut his odds that reconciliation will pass and put the chance of a shutdown at roughly 50 percent if FY27 appropriations are not completed before that CR lapse.
Three funding vehicles on the table: $1.15 trillion, $350 billion, $67 billion
The Pentagon’s FY27 request is split across three distinct vehicles, each carrying different procedural and political dynamics. The requests are: a $1.15 trillion discretionary defense budget; a $350 billion mandatory funding ask that Republicans hoped to advance through a partyline reconciliation process; and a supplemental request that includes $67 billion for defense tied to costs from the Iran war.
Analysts say reconciliation represents the Republicans’ best procedural route for moving mandatory defense dollars without Democratic support, but internal GOP doubts remain. The House passed a budget resolution in July with $60 billion for defense to start reconciliation, yet Senate Majority Leader John Thune twice declined to bring it up, arguing there were not enough Republican votes.
TD Cowen analyst Roman Schweizer called a sweeping Democratic takeover “the toughest” scenario for defense spending and labeled the lame duck “now critical” as the “last shot at [reconciliation].” VJ Sahi of Clark Street Associates told Breaking Defense Republicans could view reconciliation as “the last train leaving the station.”
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See what we buildThe FY27 NDAA: policy levers without the dollars
Unlike appropriations, the annual National Defense Authorization Act does not itself provide funding but carries policy items that can reshape defense priorities. Analysts say Democrats could use the NDAA to press oversight and war-limiting measures, including proposals aimed at curbing the president’s conduct of the Iran war.
Harrison suggested the NDAA could be the vehicle where Democrats “try to put some of those policies into law,” and specifically noted that renaming the Pentagon as the “Department of War” is one policy in the NDAA that Democrats could seek to reverse. With reconciliation unlikely, the NDAA may be one of the early places where Democrats test their leverage over defense policy even if topline spending remains unresolved.
Pete Hegseth’s fate and a looming impeachment maneuver
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is a central political variable in the lame duck. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., said he will reintroduce articles of impeachment against Hegseth when Congress returns, and told Fox News he intends to force a vote by filing a privileged resolution “which would compel a House vote within two days.” Massie added that he will not reintroduce the articles if Hegseth resigns.
Hegseth has publicly defended the Iran war and in a video post on X called the campaign “a courageous and historic effort,” denouncing impeachment efforts as political. Sources told Breaking Defense there is a potential exit path: Sen. Marsha Blackburn, “who was elected as Tennessee’s governor in the midterms,” could appoint Hegseth to her Senate seat when she leaves Washington. Analysts noted that a swift resignation during the lame duck would give the Republican Senate time to confirm a successor while the chamber is still under GOP control.
Republican messaging after the midterms — including a post from Vice President JD Vance that blamed the Iran war for the GOP loss — may provide cover for some lawmakers considering supporting impeachment, a lobbyist told Breaking Defense.
How the Pentagon, departing Republicans, and defense contractors are positioned
- Pentagon leaders: If reconciliation fails and a roughly $1.1 trillion discretionary topline materializes under Democratic control, officials will need to reallocate priorities. Analysts predict missile defense replenishment will remain a priority, but items funded by the mandatory request — including parts of the F-35 buy and the Drone Dominance effort — could be reduced, shifted, or cut.
- Departing Republican lawmakers: The efficacy of lame-duck maneuvers may hinge on whether members leaving Congress show up to vote. Harrison warned that if departing Republicans skip the session, GOP leaders might lack simple-majority counts even for reconciliation processes that purport to move on partyline votes.
- Defense contractors: Democrats signaled stronger oversight focus. Rep. Jim Himes notified the National Defense Industrial Association of a “likely” investigation into corporate donations tied to a White House ballroom project. Rep. Adam Smith said he would press for oversight into “waste, fraud and abuse,” and Rosa DeLauro wrote that Democrats must “claw back billions of dollars Republicans unilaterally provided” via reconciliation — language that signals renewed scrutiny of defense contracting and previously routed funds.
The facts in play come down to time and arithmetic. With five weeks left, a looming Dec. 11 CR expiration, a three-part Pentagon funding request, and lawmakers prepared to wield impeachment and oversight tools, the lame duck may be less a place of sweeping policy wins than a compressed scramble: one path for Republicans is a narrow, procedural reconciliation push; the alternative is a drawn-out budget and debt fight after the new Congress convenes, a scenario analysts warn could yield a multi-year deal or protracted showdown.
