China now leads in 69 of the 74 technologies reviewed, ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker (CTT) shows — a stark metric that frames the strategic contest over quantum science.
How ASPI measures China’s edge in quantum
ASPI’s CTT finds China is the country producing the most high‑impact research on quantum communication and post‑quantum cryptography. China also produces the most highly cited research papers on quantum sensors, although the United States, in second place, is narrowly ahead on the H‑index — a metric that balances quantity and citation impact. Quantum computing remains a domain where the United States still leads, but ASPI reports China is catching up.
Why the quantum lead matters for military and coercive power
ASPI lays out specific defence-relevant effects tied to quantum technologies. Quantum communication can let users detect interception of messages before they arrive, improving secure transmission in intelligence and combat settings. Quantum sensors could enable navigation and targeting when GPS is disrupted and detect otherwise hard‑to‑find objects — a capability ASPI warns could put Australia’s upcoming fleet of nuclear‑powered submarines at risk in underwater contexts. Quantum computing may optimise complex systems relevant to warfare, including training AI models to accelerate operational tempo. Meanwhile, post‑quantum cryptography aims to harden current communications against future quantum code‑breaking, a national and economic security concern.
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End the scrambleInstitutions and personnel linking civilian research to defence
The Chinese institution producing the most high‑impact research across the four quantum technologies in ASPI’s tracker is the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC). ASPI’s China Defence Universities Tracker (CDUT) reports USTC hosts a major defence laboratory and several national laboratories engaged in defence‑relevant research, including three focused on quantum. The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) — described by ASPI as the world’s largest scientific research institution and a central pillar of China’s science and technology strategy — supervises USTC and runs one of its quantum laboratories. ASPI states CAS is directed by the Chinese Communist Party and collaborates with the military and other security agencies. Open‑source reporting collated in the CDUT links Pan Jianwei, who leads USTC’s quantum science enterprise, to the development of military applications, including quantum magnetometers for detecting submarines.
Alliances, restrictions and uneven implementation
ASPI documents an uptick in policy responses and a continuing patchwork of restrictions. The United States has used sanctions, export controls and a partial decoupling of risky research collaborations; in 2024, the US Department of Commerce listed USTC as an entity attempting to acquire US‑origin items to advance China’s quantum technology capabilities, a designation the Department said had “serious ramifications for US national security given the military applications of quantum technologies.”
Australia has tightened oversight too. In August, Foreign Minister Penny Wong instructed the University of Queensland and the Australian National University to terminate research partnerships with, respectively, CAS and Shandong University. ASPI notes those specific collaborations did not relate to quantum research, but that the “risk‑aware” approach Wong advocates applies equally to dual‑use areas such as quantum. ASPI’s 2025 analysis found most democracies were slower than the United States to sever research partnerships with Chinese institutions.
Cooperation among democracies and Australian moves
ASPI urges deeper cooperation among technologically advanced democracies, particularly in quantum computing where the stakes are highest. Canberra has taken several steps: Australia joined Horizon Europe in June this year, a pooled funding program for international science and innovation collaboration; Canberra also signed a security and defence partnership and a free trade agreement with the European Union in March. Later this year, Austrade’s mission in London will host a delegation of Australian quantum companies seeking access to European markets, capital and research.
Smaller bilateral actions are advancing as well. In July, Australia’s Minister for Science Tim Ayres and Japan’s Kimi Onoda agreed a bilateral memorandum of cooperation on quantum science, technology and innovation. Days later, Fujitsu, Monash University and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation announced a partnership that will involve Australian researchers working on quantum systems and simulators in Japan. Domestically, the Australian Strategic Capabilities Accelerator is funding universities and companies to deliver military capabilities using quantum technologies, and parts of Defence are working with select democratic partners on quantum capabilities, including under AUKUS Pillar Two.
What this means for technologists, policymakers, and Australian quantum companies
- Technologists and security teams: Watch for upgrades to cryptographic planning and for sensor and navigation research that could alter threat models — ASPI flags quantum communication, sensors and post‑quantum cryptography as priority areas.
- Policymakers and regulators: Expect pressure to scale bilateral and multilateral cooperation while tightening oversight of academic and industrial partnerships with institutions flagged by national security authorities; ASPI highlights uneven implementation across democracies and a trend toward restrictions in the US and Australia.
- Australian quantum companies: Opportunities for market and research access are opening in Europe and Japan, with Austrade and recent partnership announcements positioned to link domestic firms and researchers to overseas capital and facilities.
ASPI plans further public tools this month: an expanded CTT that adds patent‑tracking across more than 20 critical technologies, including the quantum domains ASPI monitors, and a China Little Giants Tracker — a searchable database of more than 19,000 Chinese companies Beijing is backing in next‑generation critical technologies. The report’s closing note is plain: democracies must act together, and soon, if they are to avoid being left behind in quantum research and the security consequences that follow.
