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Geopolitics & DefenseNational Security

China's Military Build-up Pressures Southeast Asia

Military personnel stand vigilant at a Southeast Asian naval base with warships docked in the background.

“There’s not an explanation from China as to why it’s doing this, and all of that is creating the condition of pressure,” Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles told reporters on the sidelines of the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus).

Richard Marles on China's military build-up

Marles described what he called “the biggest conventional military build-up” since World War II and tied it directly to heightened regional unease. He said Beijing’s force expansion — for which, he added, “there’s not an explanation from China” — is producing “the condition of pressure” felt across Southeast Asia. Marles urged like-minded allies and partners to deepen cooperation and stressed that, for a “middle power like Australia,” adherence to agreed “rules of the road” is the source of national agency.

The remarks followed a July protest by Australia over what Canberra described as a test of a “nuclear-capable ballistic missile in the South Pacific,” a launch Australia called “provocative and destabilizing.”

ADMM-Plus in the Philippines: attendance and diplomatic friction

The ADMM-Plus meeting, held this week in the Philippines, convenes defense ministers from ASEAN’s 11 member states and the bloc’s eight dialogue partners: Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. The two-day gathering was shadowed by a dispute over Beijing’s representation.

China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun did not attend the ADMM-Plus. Beijing was instead represented by its defense attaché — the lowest-ranking Chinese representative at the ADMM-Plus since the forum was first held in 2010. China’s Ministry of Defense, through spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang, accused unnamed Philippine politicians of having “imposed obstacles to China’s participation” and of violating “basic diplomatic protocols,” the Straits Times reported. Zhang further said the Philippines was “holding ASEAN hostage and stirring up trouble,” and that China’s decision on representation underscored its “firm support for Asean centrality and a responsible approach towards regional security cooperation.”

Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro Gilberto, when asked about the allegation, did not directly address Zhang’s claim but said China was “given an opportunity to articulate their position, which is not any different from what they have been articulating before.”

Maritime flashpoints: Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal

Underlying the diplomatic stand-off are recurring confrontations in contested areas of the South China Sea. The source describes an uptick in both the frequency and the intensity of Chinese incursions into areas claimed by the Philippines, producing “a string of increasingly dangerous confrontations.” It cites particular friction around Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands.

In July, those tensions spilled into violence when a Philippine marine was injured in a melee with Chinese sailors at Second Thomas Shoal, a concrete example of how maritime incidents have added urgency to the regional security conversation.

U.S. commitments and the “Squad” of defense ministers

At the ADMM, the U.S. voice was assertive. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth pledged support for allies and partners in Southeast Asia and said the U.S. would pursue “practical cooperation, such as strengthening maritime domain awareness, improving interoperability, and advancing cooperation among our navies.”

Separately, Marles met with his counterparts from an informal grouping referred to in the source as “the Squad” — Australia, Japan, the U.S., and the Philippines. The four defense leaders pledged greater defense policy coordination; the meeting was their sixth in four years. Marles summarized the mood among the four by saying, “Now is a time to double down on friends and to double down on neighbors and to be working more closely together to provide for our collective security.” He also held a bilateral meeting with Hegseth to discuss “common-sense strategies to maintain a favorable balance of power in the Pacific region.”

What this means for the Philippines, Australia, and ASEAN defense ministers

  • Philippines: Manila faces ongoing operational pressure at sea, with repeated incursions and at least one injury in July underscoring the risks that defense ministers must manage while also navigating diplomatic rows over meeting participation.
  • Australia: Canberra is treating the buildup and recent missile test as drivers for deeper cooperation with partners and for insistence on adherence to “rules of the road” that the defense minister says give Australia agency as a middle power.
  • ASEAN defense ministers: The bloc is confronting both maritime security flashpoints and a diplomatic spat over representation, with China’s reduced-level attendance at ADMM-Plus signaling ruptures in regional security cooperation routines.

The record from the ADMM-Plus week in the Philippines is stark: rising maritime friction, public mutual recriminations over diplomatic protocol, and reinforced pledges of practical cooperation among allies and partners. Whether repeated meetings and stepped-up maritime cooperation will ease the “condition of pressure” Richard Marles described remains to be tested at sea and at future gatherings of defense leaders.

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