Since around December 2025, China has cut off supply of several critical minerals to Japan in an unsuccessful attempt to bully Tokyo into changing policies that Beijing doesn’t like.
Kimi Onoda in Australia and the quantum memorandum with Tim Ayres
Kimi Onoda, Japan’s minister responsible for science, technology and economic security, is visiting Australia this week. She will reportedly sign a memorandum of understanding on quantum cooperation in Sydney with Tim Ayres, the Australian cabinet minister covering science, industry and innovation. The agreement is intended to help ensure a reliable supply of the raw materials required for quantum computing to both countries and trusted international partners, and to position Australia and Japan “at the cutting edge of the transformative technologies that will determine which countries succeed, economically and strategically, in the decades ahead.”
Japan’s economic-security strategy: strategic autonomy and indispensability
Tokyo has reframed supply-chain management within a broader economic security agenda that pursues two linked aims. First, to build strategic autonomy in vulnerable commodities — such as processed critical minerals — to mitigate supply shocks and coercion. Second, to become strategically indispensable in cutting-edge technologies, including AI and semiconductors, so other countries cannot do without Japan. Those twin goals of “strategic autonomy and indispensability” were referenced by both prime ministers, Anthony Albanese and Sanae Takaichi, in a joint announcement in May.
Japan codified this approach in the 2022 Economic Security Promotion Act. That law was strengthened and expanded this year to support strategically important projects overseas, widening the scope for investments in regional cooperation alongside Australia. Sanae Takaichi, who was economic security minister in 2024 when the act came into full effect and is now prime minister, has been at the forefront of the initiative; Onoda has Takaichi’s approval to work on economic security across Tokyo’s bureaucratic fiefdoms.
Australia’s fragmented institutional architecture for economic security
By contrast, Australia’s approach has developed more incrementally and the relevant powers are split across several ministers. Tighter screening of foreign investment is coordinated by the treasurer; securing critical infrastructure sits with the home affairs minister; resilience of critical-minerals supply chains is within the resources minister’s remit; and closer oversight of subnational international agreements rests with the foreign minister. The 2024 Future Made in Australia Act uses the term “economic security” but is delivered mainly by the minister for climate change and energy because the law is largely aimed at the green transition.
Without a single minister designated to pull these threads together, the source warns, Canberra’s focus on economic security “risks slipping to whichever member of Cabinet has sufficient time and interest.” The lack of a direct Australian counterpart to Onoda is presented as evidence of this mismatch.
JOGMEC’s Wagerup investment and the mechanics of linking supply and demand
Practical steps to reduce dependence on Beijing are already under way. Investment by the Japan Organisation for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) in the Wagerup refinery in Western Australia will help break China’s stranglehold on gallium production. The source suggests a concrete policy lever: link upstream investment in Australia by JOGMEC and Japanese companies with a consolidated downstream demand signal.
Japan needs large quantities of Australia’s critical minerals for vital industrial processes, including weapons manufacturing. If Tokyo could aggregate that demand — specifying volumes, quality and delivery timeframes — Australia and Japan could broker forward offtake agreements to outmanoeuvre Beijing’s price-fixing and product dumping.
Don Farrell, Ryosei Akazawa and mechanisms for bilateral coordination
Bilateral coordination is expanding even without a single coordinating Australian minister. Australia’s and Japan’s trade ministers, Don Farrell and Ryosei Akazawa, agreed in May to establish a working group on economic security and comprehensive supply chain cooperation. That work could complement activity already underway through the Economic Security Dialogue between senior officials from Australia’s Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and Japan’s National Security Secretariat.
How policymakers, industry and technologists are affected
- Policymakers and regulators: Australian ministers and officials can use the new trade working group and the Economic Security Dialogue to operationalise joint projects, but the source argues an Australian minister for economic security would reduce friction by centralising coordination.
- Affected enterprises and procurement leaders: Japanese upstream investments such as JOGMEC’s stake in Wagerup create opportunities to negotiate aggregated, forward offtake agreements if Canberra and Tokyo can align specifications for volumes, quality and delivery timeframes.
- Technologists and security teams: the quantum memorandum that Onoda will sign with Tim Ayres aims to secure raw materials for quantum computing among trusted partners, which is intended to protect supply lines for strategically important technologies.
The bilateral relationship is described as stronger than it has ever been and advancing on economic security, but institutional misalignment remains a practical obstacle. Onoda’s visit — the quantum memorandum in Sydney, potential discussions with Madeleine King about linking upstream investments to downstream demand, and the new trade working group — will push cooperation forward. Whether Canberra will create a ministerial role to mirror Onoda’s coordinating remit, the source suggests, will determine how easily Canberra and Tokyo can convert these milestones into long-term, resilient supply chains.
