"use in a more attritable way." — Maj. Gen. Christopher Niemi
Maj. Gen. Christopher Niemi's Senate testimony
On May 12, 2026, Maj. Gen. Christopher Niemi, the acting head of Air Force Futures, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that a new requirements document for a successor to the MQ-9 Reaper has been approved. That approval clears the way for the Air Force to begin a new acquisition process for an uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) intended to assume the MQ-9’s ISR and strike role. Niemi said advances in technology and production methods make it possible to field a platform that is "more flexible" through open architectures and that can be produced "in mass numbers" at lower cost.
Concrete performance targets in the market survey
Last month the Air Force published a market survey notice seeking industry input on an attritable ISR drone. The notice included explicit performance parameters: a range of up to 932 miles, a 20-hour endurance, and a requirement that the aircraft be capable of flying 100 missions while maintaining a "low-to-medium acquisition" cost. For context supplied in the notice, the basic MQ-9 can fly more than 20 hours unarmed or more than 12 hours with weapons; the MQ-9B variant, with extended wingspan, can extend endurance to more than 40 hours.
Acquisition philosophy: from "attritable" to "affordable mass"
The Air Force's language has shifted in recent years from the single word attritable — meaning inexpensive enough to risk losing on high-threat missions — to the phrase "affordable mass." The market survey and Niemi’s testimony emphasize that the successor will be tailored to be lower cost and easier to produce using modern manufacturing approaches and open architectures, trading some survivability for the ability to buy and field significantly larger numbers. The new requirements explicitly accept that "many losses will occur in future combat scenarios" and aim to leverage quantity to sustain operations in contested environments.
Operational experience driving the change: losses and high utility
The Air Force’s direction is rooted in recent operational history. The service has sustained considerable MQ-9 loss rates against mid-tier and lower-tier adversaries; many MQ-9s were lost over Yemen, and at least 24 Air Force Reapers were destroyed during the war with Iran earlier this year. The source notes that those Reapers had been pushed deep into Iran, loitered for hours, and performed important strike and surveillance missions. Production of the MQ-9A has ended in favor of the MQ-9B, and the current Reaper fleet includes more than 130 MQ-9As, according to Aviation Week — figures that underline both the platform’s operational importance and the financial pain of replacing destroyed airframes with like-for-like assets.
What this means for the U.S. Air Force, legacy primes, and peer rivals China and Russia
- The U.S. Air Force: The approved requirements clear the path to an acquisition effort focused on open architectures and scalable production. But the reporting notes a missing or obscured acquisition strategy: alongside aircraft, the successor will need new ground control systems, sensors, and data exploitation technologies that are compatible with open standards and optimized for survivability in contested environments.
- Northrop Grumman, General Atomics, and newer entrants: The supplier landscape has broadened since MQ-Next and Next-Gen Multi-Role UAS FoS planning. Where Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and General Atomics were once front-runners, there are now more competitors promising rapid, low-cost scale-up. Legacy primes are also shifting away from exclusively "exquisite, very expensive" designs and are pursuing production techniques to reduce costs. Still, the source cautions that these firms "have much to prove" given the operational importance of an MQ-9 replacement.
- China and Russia (peer rivals): Earlier Air Force planning explicitly aimed a successor at Great Power Competition and the kinds of highly contested anti-access/area-denial environments a peer rival would present. Niemi’s remarks indicate the new approach will be built with those harsh realities in mind, but by emphasizing mass and cost over absolute survivability, the service is accepting a different force posture in a potential high-end fight with peer rivals such as China or Russia.
Background threads from the MQ-Next and Next-Gen Multi-Role UAS FoS efforts remain visible in the new requirements. The 2021 concepts included a family-of-systems approach and contemplated both survivable, reusable platforms and attritable or expendable ones. Programs such as the Air Force's earlier "Speed to Ramp" ambition sought initial fielding timelines near the 2026/2027 window and broader capabilities by 2030; whether those timelines align with the current, lower-cost emphasis will depend on how quickly requirements are firmed and acquisition plans are developed.
For now, the Air Force has formally redirected its search: prioritize flexibility through open architecture, exploit modern production to drive down unit cost, and accept attrition as part of a massed, operational solution. The approved requirements clear the technical path; what remains is the acquisition strategy and the industrial response that will determine whether the service can really buy a drone "cheap enough to risk losing" while preserving the Reaper’s utility.
