Pakistan Air Force Eyes New Long-Range Missile to Maintain Air Superiority

"The J-10CE allowed the PAF to maintain its 'first shot' advantage relative to the Indian Air Force," ACM Zaheer Ahmed Babar asserted.

From Operation 'Swift Retort' to a standing rule

Since Operation 'Swift Retort' in 2019, the Pakistan Air Force set a clear internal goal: preserve a "first shot" capability in air-to-air reach. That imperative drove an early decision to acquire off-the-shelf fighters when needed. The PAF pursued that route and inducted 20 J-10CE "Dragon" aircraft from the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) in 2022. Air Headquarters credits the J-10CE and its PL-15/E long-range air-to-air missile (LRAAM) with every one of its claimed air-to-air kills against the Indian Air Force (IAF), a fact that frames current procurement thinking.

Why the PAF will seek another LRAAM

Given the emphasis on a "first shot" advantage and the operational narrative that the J-10CE/PL-15/E pairing produced PAF air-to-air successes, the logical next step is to ensure that reach remains ahead of adversary capabilities. The briefing argues that the PAF will therefore pursue a new LRAAM, either as part of a fifth- or next-generation fighter acquisition or as an add-on to its existing fleet. The service has already signalled it will pursue new platforms where necessary to retain that capability, a posture that naturally extends to missile procurement.

China: the more probable supplier and its technology path

China is presented as the more probable source for a future LRAAM and for a fifth-generation or next-generation fighter that would carry it. The market intelligence notes China had offered Pakistan an updated variant of the SD-10 during earlier JF-17 Block-3 development — a variant later confirmed to be the PL-12AE — and that the PL-15 family is already implicated in PAF air-to-air claims. The assessment also flags a technological caveat: China’s solid-fuel rocket motor technology could continue to advance, potentially increasing efficiency and enabling smaller, PL-15-line missiles to attain longer ranges. In short, a Chinese path would likely follow the country's existing solid-fuel, rocket-based designs and incremental upgrades to range and performance.

Türkiye: an alternative propulsion and platform pathway

Quwa’s analysis introduces a distinct Turkish route centered on air-breathing air-to-air missile designs, analogous in concept to the IAF’s MBDA Meteor. That approach uses a different propulsion and kinematics profile than the larger solid-fuel rockets China favors. The analysis notes two practical reasons the PAF might consider this path: first, the PAF’s current fighter platforms might be better suited to leverage air-breathing AAMs; and second, Turkish designs could serve as a supplementary option to Chinese missiles rather than a wholesale replacement.

The Turkish angle gains political traction from a recently signed Badr Agreement, which the brief says could — if proven — steer Pakistan closer to the KAAN fighter program and thereby prompt more serious evaluation of Turkish AAM options. The intelligence frames this as a contingent possibility: possible, but not yet demonstrated.

What this means for Pakistan, China, and Türkiye

• Pakistan (the PAF): Will continue prioritizing a "first shot" reach. Expect the PAF to press supplier partners for longer-ranged AAMs, evaluate whether new airframes or missile types better preserve that edge, and weigh platform compatibility with air-breathing versus solid-fuel designs.
• China (AVIC and missile designers): Remains the likeliest supplier for a next-generation fighter and an upgraded LRAAM, with options that include PL-15-line evolutions and previously offered SD-10/PL-12AE variants.
• Türkiye (KAAN and Turkish missile developers): Now in a position to offer an alternative technology path — air-breathing AAMs — especially if the Badr Agreement advances cooperation on the KAAN; Turkish designs could supplement, rather than supplant, Chinese offerings.

The PAF’s operational doctrine — born in 2019 and vindicated in its own account by the J-10CE’s record — makes the requirement simple to state and hard to ignore: keep the "first shot." The practical choices ahead are less straightforward. Will the service lean into China’s mature, rocket-motor approach and seek incremental range gains in PL-line missiles, or will it embrace an air-breathing alternative from Türkiye that may better match some legacy platforms? The market signals and the Badr Agreement set the table; the next moves will come down to platform compatibility, propulsion trade-offs, and the political rhythms of supplier relationships.

Original story