"The idea that you could do research or the translations that we’re doing is not credible," said Brendan Mulvaney, director of the Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI), describing why recent personnel moves amount to more than a simple reorganization.
Brendan Mulvaney on CASI’s operational reality
Mulvaney, who has led CASI since its inception nearly a decade ago, told Breaking Defense that while he praised the institute’s military personnel, the core analytic work — much of it drawn from open-source materials published in Mandarin — was done by a 10-member civilian staff. Those positions are being eliminated, he said, and without them the institute’s research capabilities are effectively gone. Mulvaney said civilian positions are being converted to an unfunded status, allowing staffers to continue working until they are moved elsewhere in the Department of the Air Force (DAF), find other government roles, or pursue private-sector employment.
What the Air Force and Air University say
An Air Force spokesperson told Breaking Defense that “Air University continues to evaluate the alignment of the CASI mission to best support DAF priorities,” and that “The mission will continue using assigned military personnel and civilian personnel to execute priorities outlined in their charter.” The spokesperson also said eight civilian positions would be affected by the reduction and that “[e]mployees filling those positions will continue to serve and support CASI” alongside five military staff “for the foreseeable future.”
Audit-ready is a season. It shouldn't be.
Evidence in spreadsheets, controls drifting between audits, frameworks multiplying on flat headcount. Nubivance runs continuous compliance on Rapid7 Cyber GRC - SOC 2, HIPAA, ISO 27001, PCI, CMMC.
End the scrambleStaffing mechanics, timing, and limits on rehiring
Mulvaney pushed back on the Air Force characterization of five military staff, saying that number includes two fellows and one military post that has been unmanned since last year; he also noted two civilian positions were already vacant. He said the cuts flowed from Pentagon-wide workforce reductions and that the timing was driven by the new fiscal year beginning Oct. 1. Mulvaney explained that once a civilian position is converted and a staffer departs, the role cannot be backfilled and new hires cannot be made. Eliminating a position outright would require a formal reduction in force — the same tool used in the Department of Government Efficiency initiative in 2025 to cut thousands of Pentagon workers — but, he said, that elimination has not yet occurred.
Reactions from analysts, service programs, and the NDU collection
- Jacob Stokes, senior fellow and deputy director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, posted that closing CASI “should *not* be on that list,” adding that it represented “immense analytic and educational value per dollar, lost.”
- William Yale, a Navy surface warfare officer whose social media post helped raise awareness of the downsizing, told Breaking Defense that military staff “can’t replicate” the work done by civilian employees and warned that “the institutional knowledge and influence that CASI built over many years will be lost,” and that CASI’s research collection at the National Defense University (NDU) “will be at risk.”
- Spokespeople for the Army and Navy confirmed their China-focused centers — the China Landpower Studies Center and the China Maritime Studies Institute, respectively — are not expecting changes. A Marine Corps spokesperson said there are “currently no plans to reduce or make significant changes” to the China Warfighting Initiative housed at the Marine Corps War College.
How CASI employees, military planners, and analysts are responding
- CASI employees: Mulvaney said he will remain as long as he can to help staff find new roles and is seeking ways to keep the organization open or move it elsewhere; employees face a mix of continuing in an unfunded status, shifting to other DAF roles, or leaving for private-sector work.
- Military planners and analysts: With CASI’s current commitments likely to stretch “probably around March,” according to Mulvaney, planners relying on its Mandarin-language open-source analyses should expect continuity in the near term but growing gaps thereafter if civilian expertise departs and positions cannot be rehired.
- Institutional stewards: Air University removed a CASI press release that had announced closure; Mulvaney said he posted it to make the institute’s fate clear. For now, the Air Force says CASI will continue to operate while it evaluates alignment with DAF priorities.
The immediate record is simple and sharp: the Air Force says CASI will remain, operating with assigned military and civilian personnel as priorities are evaluated; the institute’s director says the planned elimination of its civilian research staff will leave CASI “basically dead.” Mulvaney has promised to stay until staff are placed or depart and estimates CASI’s active commitments will last into the spring. Whether those commitments give way to a sustained, staffed center or to an archival echo in the NDU collection now under threat is the concrete decision still to be made.
