"As we get to the end of the MQ-9 life, there was some early talk of where do we want to go afterwards, and candidly, as a result of some of the losses that we've experienced in combat operations, that discussion sort of got accelerated," Lt. Gen. Christopher J. Niemi said at a Thursday roundtable with reporters.
Scale of the losses that changed plans
The Air Force’s calculations shifted after what the Washington Post reported in August: the service has lost at least 45 MQ-9 Reapers during Donald Trump’s war on Iran, roughly one-quarter of its fleet. Those losses have prompted senior leaders to seek a faster transition away from the MQ-9 family toward a new class of remotely piloted aircraft they call Massed Modular Aircraft (MMA).
What the Air Force wants: MMA performance and price targets
Service leaders are seeking at least 180 MMA aircraft and are aiming for a much lower unit price than legacy systems. Lt. Gen. Niemi said the price of one MMA should be about half of the $20 million Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) figure: roughly $10 million for a bare airframe. The $20 million CCA target reflects first production contracts that were awarded in June, four months ahead of schedule.
The July Defense Innovation Unit solicitation lays out specific performance targets the Air Force is seeking for an MMA: an increased payload of 2,800 pounds, an unfueled combat radius of 2,300 nautical miles, and an 8,000-nautical-mile one-way mission range. The service has been explicit that the $10 million and $20 million figures are for bare airframes; a service spokesperson said those numbers "do not refer to total missionized costs."
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End the scrambleAttritability as a strategic design principle
Niemi framed the shift in procurement philosophy as a lesson from recent combat experience. "What we're seeing, in part based on our assessment of the threats around the world, and in part based on our real-world experience, is that you're going to lose more military hardware in future conflicts than you have historically," he said. That assessment underpins the service's stated need for platforms that are "easier to produce, cheaper to buy, and that we can afford to lose more of them," he added, noting that the Air Force lacks a large pool of such attritable assets today.
General Atomics pushes back and pitches follow-ons
General Atomics, the Reaper’s manufacturer, defended the MQ-9's record and highlighted continued engagement with the Air Force. Company spokesperson C. Mark Brinkley said the MQ-9's capabilities remain distinctive: "The MQ-9’s unique combination of endurance, payload, range, sensors, weapons, connectivity, adaptability and reliability is precisely what enables mission effects that others struggle to replicate." Brinkley also pointed to program upgrades over 25 years and noted the platform was praised during Operation Epic Fury.
Brinkley acknowledged the MMA solicitation’s intent and presented company alternatives. He said General Atomics has teased a new MMA offering with a 10,000-nautical-mile ferry range that it claims can carry four Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles. He further suggested a next-generation product: "Our new Wildfire aircraft addresses all of the concerns posed by the MMA solicitation. We can deliver years earlier and maintain the same high quality," Brinkley said. "You can have everything that makes Reaper special, plus more, at a price that doesn’t break the bank. Reaper is special. Wildfire is special, too."
Congress: limits on retirements and push for more purchases
The Senate Armed Services Committee weighed in on platform retention and purchase plans in its version of the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act. The committee is backing the MQ-9 platform by placing limits on how many can be retired and calls for additional purchases to be completed by 2028, signaling legislative appetite to preserve some portion of the existing Reaper fleet even as the Air Force moves to acquire attritable alternatives.
How the Air Force, General Atomics, and the Senate are positioned
- Air Force modernization leadership: Accelerating procurement timelines and adopting attritability as a core principle; seeking at least 180 MMA aircraft that hit prescribed payload and range metrics while keeping bare-airframe costs near $10 million.
- General Atomics: Defending the MQ-9’s operational record, offering upgraded MQ-9 variants (including SkyGuardian references) and pitching Wildfire and a teased MMA with long ferry range and heavy anti-ship payload capacity as competitive answers to the MMA solicitation.
- Senate Armed Services Committee: Moving to constrain retirements and push for more MQ-9 purchases by 2028 through the 2027 NDAA, creating a legislative counterweight to rapid fleet transitions.
The losses in Iran have turned a long-running replacement conversation into a compressed procurement challenge: the Air Force wants cheaper, more attritable aircraft in quantity, industry is offering both evolutionary and novel answers, and Congress is pressing to preserve capability in the near term. Which approach prevails — scaled attritable fleets, upgraded legacy platforms, or a hybrid mix — will shape remotely piloted aviation buying and basing decisions in the months and years ahead.
