"That assumption deserves renewed scrutiny in light of new research findings," wrote Dan Oltrogge, COMSPOC’s Chief Scientist and Director of the Center for Space Standards and Innovation, summing up a central concern: operators are making high-stakes decisions using orbital data whose confidence may be far lower than they assume.
COMSPOC analysis: only "7 percent" of actual collision risk retired
COMSPOC's recent analysis produces a stark, quantifiable finding: typical operators may only be retiring 7 percent of actual collision risk, leaving 93 percent of collision risk unmitigated. The report frames that gap not as a failure of operators but as a consequence of the limitations in the orbital information on which they must base life-or-death decisions about maneuvering valuable spacecraft.
How low-confidence SSA corrupts collision probability calculations
The report explains a paradox at the heart of current conjunction assessment practice: low-confidence space situational awareness (SSA) information can generate deceptively reassuring collision probabilities. When uncertainty about where objects will actually be is large, probability calculations may appear to indicate minimal risk — even though confidence in that conclusion is itself minimal. Conversely, poor data quality also generates many unnecessary warnings, producing false alarms that consume analyst time and spacecraft fuel.
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End the scramble →Operational trade-offs: fuel, analysis, and "luck"
Operators face a constant trade-off between caution and cost. Every maneuver consumes fuel, risks service interruptions, and imposes planning burdens downstream. COMSPOC warns that because many conjunction warnings are driven by low-quality data, the current system produces "too many false alarms that are then ignored, while simultaneously failing to mitigate true collision risk." The practical result, the analysis concludes, is that avoiding accidents in space has so far involved a substantial element of luck.
Remedies COMSPOC identifies: analytics, data sharing, and commercial tools
COMSPOC does not argue for simply collecting more observations. Instead, the organization calls for a holistic approach that prioritizes advanced data fusion and analytics, data sharing, and deep collaboration between spacecraft operators, governments, and SSA systems. The analysis indicates that substantial improvements in orbital positional accuracy are possible and that "the software and data needed to achieve these improvements are readily available on the commercial market." When accuracy improvements are combined with appropriately selected collision probability thresholds, COMSPOC finds operators can both reduce warning volume and address a much larger share of actual collision risk.
Implications for defense acquisition, the United States and its allies
The report addresses defense policy directly: as governments invest in next-generation space domain awareness capabilities, success metrics should shift away from activity counts — the number of observations collected, the size of surveillance networks, the number of daily conjunction data messages produced, or the number of customers using the product — because "those metrics describe activity, not operational effectiveness." Instead, success should be measured by whether operators have sufficient confidence in the information to make better decisions under real operational conditions. COMSPOC frames "decision confidence" as a strategic capability that will affect operational readiness, force resilience, and long-term sustainability.
What this means for spacecraft operators, governments, and SSA systems
- Spacecraft operators: With better positional accuracy and adjusted collision-probability thresholds, operators can expect fewer unnecessary conjunction investigations, lower fuel expenditure on avoidable maneuvers, and clearer prioritization of analytical resources.
- Governments and defense acquisition leaders: Procurement and program success criteria should reward improvements in operator confidence and decision support rather than raw observational volume or message throughput.
- SSA systems and commercial vendors: The report points to a market opportunity and technical requirement: deliver advanced data fusion, analytics, and commercially available software that demonstrably increase positional accuracy and actionable confidence.
Bottom line, in COMSPOC's words: "better accuracy does not simply reduce workload — it can improve safety." The organization leaves a clear challenge for planners and program managers: measure whether new investments change what operators actually trust in combat and commercial operations, not merely how much data they collect. If governments and industry can pivot from counting observations to measuring confidence in decisions, the odds of converting informed caution into effective stewardship — rather than luck — will materially improve.
https://breakingdefense.com/2026/08/the-confidence-deficit-in-space/
